“Early Bird” or “Second Mouse” Essay

â€Å"The early bird may get the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.† Decide which of the strategies (â€Å"early bird† or â€Å"second mouse†) is the most effective in your life as a student and life in general. The early bird may get the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese was first recorded in 1605 in William Camden’s book of proverbs and has remained part of the misplaced work ethic ever since. The early bird gets the worm meaning it is best to start the day early and also not procrastinate on things. ‘But the second mouse gets the cheese’ meaning the first mouse got killed in the mousetrap and so you got rewarded for starting late or procrastinating. So let the other eager person screw up and then learn from their failure and then reap the reward. I am neutrally in this option. If the early bird gets the worm, then how can it be that the second mouse gets the cheese? If we need to motivate our staff to get up and get started, then we might want to state that the early bird get the worm, so let’s get up and get going so as to get there early before anyone else. On the other hand, if the competition has come out with something quicker than we have, then in order to get everyone on point we might say, â€Å"The second mouse gets the cheese.† In other words, if we build upon the original idea that may have been invented first, then we can build something bigger and better. â€Å" The early bird may get the worm† meanings that success comes to those who prepare well and put in effort. Preparation is the cost you need to pay in order to be truly rewarded. You can’t just jump in the ring and expect to win the fight without having first learned how to box and prepare your body for the required endurance. From the moment of birth till death, we work very hard to succeed. In childhood, we learn how to walk and communicate with others though persistence and willingness. Throughout our adolescence, we study hard to achieve good marks and to get a proper job. For example as I am a student, it is best to study early and in small increments well before the test. Do not cram the night before the exam is the best advice for me from my secondary school teacher that make me successfully went into university. However, â€Å"second mouse† is another effective strategies in my life as a student and life in general. Sometimes in life it is smart to learn from the risks that others take and the mistakes they make. The dead mouse in the trap saw the cheese and went for it. Did not work. But the second mouse, though still cautious, was in the enviable position of reaping the reward with no risk. We are all human, therefore we all make mistakes, but the one thing that comes out of these mistakes is we usually learn a lesson. Making mistakes is human nature, none of us are exempt. That is even true in writing this paper, I will have to write many drafts without errors, and to meet what I feel is right. It will only be natural for me to make these mistakes. But, just as in making errors on this paper and making the corrections, making mistakes in life and correcting those makes for a better human being. We need to be smart so that we will be the â€Å"second mouse that get the cheese but not the first mouse that in the trap.

Analysis Of Cultural Landscape Essay

Cultural landscapes fall into three main categories. The most easily identifiable is the clearly defined landscape designed and created intentionally by man. The second category is the organically evolved landscape. The final category is the associative cultural landscape. Here the analysis is on Metropolis at Metrotown, which comes under the former category. Metropolis at Metrotown is a giant mall located in Burnaby, the third largest city in British Columbia by population, geographically sits in-between Vancouver and Port Coquitlam. The city is located just outside of downtown Vancouver and has evolved from a bedroom community to an urban centre and has lots to offer, from unique shopping areas, theatre productions, sports events and many more. The city has a mix of different religions and cultures. The ethnic identity is clearly visible in the city, northern parts of Hastings Street being well catered to Italian population, and south, Metrotown area with the mix of origins from China, South Korea and Yugoslavia. The time when SkyTrain, an automated train with advanced rapid transit technology, was constructed in the middle of 1980s, the dramatic development has started across the lengths and breadths of Burnaby, especially along Kingsway. This lead to the establishment of Metrotown Center in 1986, and consequently the residential areas around the commercial complex stood up in no time. Formerly the Shopping Mall was called as Metrotown Eaton Centre. But when Eaton was shutdown removing its stake, the Metropolis combined with Metrotown to form a single entity. Today this mega mall is the second largest in Canada. Today the expansion of the mega mall plays a major factor in the generation of economy and revenue from foreign exchange. The mall boasts the standard of living of the population in the city by giving employment. Job opportunities in the retail sector are expected to increase with about 97,000 new positions becoming available by 2011. Opportunities for retail sales associates, supervisors, and managers are expected to grow over the next eight years. The policy of recruitment is compliant with Human Rights Code, and prohibits discrimination in employment due to race, national or ethnic origin, citizenship, religion, age, sex, marital status, disability, language or record of offences. This mall plays a major role as one of the attractions of tourism. The mall offers attractive tourism programs like out-of-Town visitors, Group Travel Program, Meeting Planners and Sports Organizers, Hotel Shopping Packages. With the evolution of cross culture from different walks of the people, the globalization gave the speed to the spread of multi-national products in the city that never seen before. And these lead many more markets to see the light of the sun. This giant hall has around 220 shops, three department stores, multiplex theatres, restaurants, business offices, library, dental clinic, banks, cafes, spas and many more. The raise of public transportation in the form of Buses and SkyTrain emerged for the giant mall’s accessibility. And these add to the income generation from the parking and gas consumption. With the success of retail market, Government is benefiting in the form of Tax on the services and products. This giant mall is now touching the people from various walks of life. From the sales representatives to the market analysts , software engineers to librarians , cosmeticians to dentists, fashion designers to art suppliers, customer care executives , and the list goes on. If some people come to spend time in leisure, others come for partying. Round the clock this mall entertains the public with attractive events. Some of the annual events which include Clearance sales, Job fairs make the place the hot spot in the city. And the calendar always offers some new events to celebrate for the public like Fashion Shows, Music Awards, Contests and the list goes on. The mall is equipped with all necessary services to provide the public with the best shopping experience. The range of services include strollers, baby care in the food court, a nursing room, family washroom equipped with a baby change station and a Jellybean Park Play care. For giving the accessibility to all age groups, the mall provides wheelchairs on loan with free of cost. And sophisticated facilities are provided to the public to make their shopping enjoyable. Automated doors are located at most of the major entrances which includes Kingsway entrance, Real Canadian Superstore, Central Boulevard to name a few. It is also equipped with Passenger elevators. And modern, comfortable, and clean washrooms are available and they are also wheelchair accessible. Metrotown Food court caters tasteful food to public from various cultures and geographies. It is a very grand food court than the food courts of other malls in Burnaby. One can find Thai food, or a Korean cuisine ,or a restaurant making Caesar salad from Opa , along with the well known Burger King or A&W. The giant mall provides community rooms for the charities and non-profit organizations to make use of the infrastructure for the welfare of the community. Not only that, each year Metropolis at Metrotown donates nearly $1 million to charities and non-profit organizations, without discrimination on the basis of race, sex, or creed, to enhance the lives of the people in the community. Today the giant mall is one of the integral parts of the society and plays a significant role in the city’s economy and touches the lives of the people around the world, round the clock. References Anonymous (n. d) BCIT Retail Marketing Management Program . Retrieved March 26, 2008, from Anonymous (June, 2007) Metrotown Food Court . Retrieved March 26, 2008, from Anonymous (n. d) Tourism Programs . Retrieved March 26, 2008, from Anonymous (n. d) Cultural Landscapes – Categories and Subcategories . Retrieved March 26, 2008, from

Langston Hughes: Harlem a Dream Deferred Essay

A dream cast aside can rankle a person’s will in the deepest of ways. It tends to permeate their every thought and becomes an unshakable burden. In the poem â€Å"Harlem (A Dream Deferred)† by Langston Hughes, the language used describes how a suspended goal can frustratingly linger. The writer first poses a question: â€Å"What happens to a dream deferred?† He then compares a postponed dream to a dried up raisin or a festering sore, giving a reader the idea of how treacherous it can be to put off one’s goals. What only can make it worse is when we have little control over our fate; when the determination of whether or not our goals are achievable is decided by someone else as was done with the African American population in the United States throughout the early 20th century.†¨Ã¢â‚¬ ¨Life for the black population of America throughout the early 1900s was less than ideal. While they’d been free from slavery for nearly 100 years, they remained i n segregated schools and were restricted to menial work nonetheless. Between 1920 and 1930, a movement was followed by African Americans across the United States known as the Harlem Renaissance (see Great Days In Harlem). The movement aimed to establish an identity for blacks in America and gave many hope that they might be seen equal to their white counterparts. The movement lost momentum, but its ideals remained in the hearts of the people; their dreams of equality left behind to fester in the backs of their minds. So what happens when a dream such as this is deferred? If it is a true dream, reflecting our hearts desire, it cannot be forgotten easily. Hughes, an African American in the Harlem Renaissance era, writes a poem full of bitter possibilities reflecting his frustration.†¨Ã¢â‚¬ ¨Evidently, Hughes felt frustrated when he wrote this poem in 1951. It was 30 years after the start of the renaissance movement, and it seemed to him that the black identity had made no steps toward equality. At this point in time, the African Americans were feeling neglected; their goals cast aside and their lives seeming more like a nightmare than a dream. But what happens to a dream deferred? Hughes offers many responses to this question, all equally unpleasant. In using similes, the writer creates imagery allowing a reader to imagine a festering sore or a piece of rotten meat and understand how toxic a postponed dream can be for a person.†¨Ã¢â‚¬ ¨Equally unpleasant is allowing oneself to â€Å"sugar over†, to simply nod ones head and accept the crushing of ones dreams as reality. To be sweet to those who’ve taken away every ounce of one’s dignity can be just as irksome. Then the idea that was once a dream will linger evermore, weighing a person down, sagging like a heavy load. In the final statement of the poem, the writer leaves it as a separate sort of thought, â€Å"Or does it explode?† This final question seems more like a warning, an indication of the author being at wit’s end. A dream deferred can linger so long that a person can no longer bear the load and they may retaliate. In this instance, the writer as well as his fellow African Americans were beyond frustrated with the exhaustion of carrying the load of their unfulfilled dreams. Harlem’s ideals had been forgotten.†¨Ã¢â‚¬ ¨From the language used to the thoughtful structure, â€Å"Harlem (A Dream Deferred)† speaks to a reader. The writer creates strong imagery that can be connected to the situation he’s describing. A dream deferred really takes its toll on a person, or as proved by the context surrounding the poem, a group of people. To have ones goals setback is hard enough, but having them dismissed by another simply makes it linger and inflame. We’re brought back to the question of what happens to a dream deferred? As suggested it can rot like meat and dry up like a raisin but eventually we crack under the pressure. There’s only so much a person can take; in the end our deferred dreams will cause us to explode.

Prostate Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words - 1

Prostate - Essay Example The rectal assessment discloses an expanded prostate with an irregular shape, tenderness, and bogginess. Clinical presentation is used to diagnose acute prostatitis. Urine analysis and culture is used to test for uropathogens. Patients suffering from acute prostatitis and possess other risk elements such as chronic renal failure, and diabetes are more at risk for prostatic abscess (Resnick & Thompson, 2000). Treatment in acute prostatitis includes antimicrobial treatment combined with drainage through the urethra by transurethral resection of the prostate, through the rectum by aspiration and perineaum by aspiration (Shoskes, 2008). I agree that Benign prostatic hyperplasia is an illness where there is unusual expanding of the prostate gland. The risk elements in this condition include dietary aspects, alcohol, metabolic syndrome, sexual activity, age and presence of flowing androgens (Bachmann & Rosette, 2012). The signs and symptoms consist of incomplete voiding, straining to void, frequent urination, nocturia, problem in beginning urine stream and dribbling. According to the American Urological Association, the diagnosis includes a blood test, bladder test, measuring post-void residual volume, cystoscopy, ultrasound and urodynamic pressure (Urology Care Foundation, Inc. 2014). Treatment of benign prostatic hypertrophy includes ÃŽ ±1adrenoceptor antagonists for signs related to obstruction of the lower urinary tract. In this particular case, the doxazosin is most suitable (Kirby, McConnell, Fitzpatrick, Roehrborn, Wyllie & Boyle, 2005). The other drugs that are appropriate are 5-alpha reductase inhibitor, com bination medications, alpha blockers and phosphodiesteras-5 inhibitors (NIH Publication, 2014). I agree that Prostate cancer is the most killer disease in men. The risk aspects comprise of environmental and genetic factors. Some risk factors cannot be managed for example family history of prostate

Amazon Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Amazon - Case Study Example The operating cash flow for amazon increase to 31% to record $5.47 billion in the financial year ended December 2013 compared to $4.18 billion in the year 2012. For the net sales for the fourth quarter in year ended 2013, the company recorded a 20% increase that is equivalent to $25.59 billion compared to $21.27 billion in the financial year 2012 fourth quarter. The company in overall accrued a net sales of $74.45 billion in the financial year 2013 which was a 22% increase compared to $61.09 billion in the year 2012 ("Why Amazon Is A Lousy Business"). The company is divided into two segments that include; the North American segment and the international segment. The North American segment is involved in export sales from the www.amazon.ca and www.amazon.com, all of which are based in U.S. The international segment is involved in international websites that are involved in export sales to customers in Canada and U.S. from abroad (Amazon.com, Inc.). Jeff Bezos is an American entrepreneur and the founder of amazon.com and acts as the company’s chief executive. He was born in 1964 January 12th in Albuquerque in New Mexico. He studied in Princeton University where he was awarded a computer science and electrical engineering bachelor’s degree in 1986. He worked in several firms in Wall Street that included Bankers Trust, Fitel and lastly in D.E. Shaw investment firm where he was acknowledged as the youngest vice president in the year 1990. He later quit the job in 1994 to go to Seattle where he had seen an opportunity in internet market which by then was untapped market. Despite the successes that Bezos achieved after founding amazon.com, he was first faced with the challenge of marketing budget. He had to use word of mouth to make the business succeed and be recognized by many people. Another challenge he faced in his first years is the skepticism that people had about him. They saw him as a failure, someone who left a good job to start something

Subject Position and Discourse Analysis Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Subject Position and Discourse Analysis - Essay Example The Person Peter Smith is in seven situations all at the same time. Subject positioning is the constant shifting from one position to another because a person has many subject positions in one discourse. A person, in a small group gathering, could be the mother to a daughter, an Asian woman to a white man, a fat person to a slim one, a Florida resident to a Virginian and the like. Discourses are then constructed to fit the given situation or position a person is in. The defining in positive of one position will generate the "other" position automatically. The woman position means there is a man position. Fraser said that Hegemony is the "discursive face of power".(Bingham,1994) In a hospital situation, when a patient is being interviewed by the doctor, the doctor tries to get as much information regarding the medical history of the patient. The patient, not knowing a medical jargon, will try to explain, in a subject position of patient/doctor, her complete medical history. People will look at a pregnant woman and they will understand her body language and give her advices (Davies and Harre, 1990). The viewer crosses the threshold of the concrete work of art. ... (Hein,1998) In a storytelling situation, When a person speaks of his or her personal pains in a love relationship, the listener sympathizes with the speaker because they both feel the same situation. Van Langehove and Harre describes this as the giving of ACCOUNTS (accountive) of other people's behavior. PERFORMATIVE. This occurs when the student PERFORMS. This is evident in the social and communicative skills that a person makes in front of a real live audience. Prosody is an integral part of the reading process. Teachers aid the students, in the growing years, to gain the competency need for communication using verbal PERFORMANCE to be beneficial to both the reader and the listener.According to Miller, Steiner & Larson in 1996, the integrated language arts & reading program as well as the reading and writing lessons are authentic activities that can be incorporated into content areas such as science. (Bucher,2003) Performance positioning can also be greatly enhanced with the use of Prosody. This is language put to music. Prosody uses patterns of pitch, rhythm, and loudness that a person uses creates native sounding and emphatic speech. (Wennerstrom,2001) When a person does an activity together with the other person this is called performance positioning.Discourse analysis only discusses the details or micro of what message a person communicates. Whereas, subject positioning is more macro. It takes into consideration the economy, business and the entire environment when the communication was sent from the speaker to the listener.Subject positioning is better than discourse analysis because discourse analysis explains the effect of what has

Customer portfolio and Strategic Account Management 04255 Essay

Customer portfolio and Strategic Account Management 04255 - Essay Example This paper is focused on the concept of customer portfolio and its relevance to the strategic account management. Storbacka (2012) mentioned that the concept of strategic account management is based on the â€Å"co-creation of value†. The term strategic accounts or the key accounts indicate to the most valuable customers of the company (Ford et al, 2003). The process of value generation lies in the centre of the corporate goals that allows the firms to deeply focus on understanding the customers’ value creating process and how the firm’s strategies are responsible for it. Homburg et al (2002) opined that the value generation through strategic account management program involves a long list of activities including product development, pricing, distribution, offering services along with manufacturing and sales. The integrated effect of these factors yields value for the customers, which creates a long term relationship between them and the firms. Piercy and Lane (2006) argued that there are significant levels of risks involved with the implementation of the strategic account management process. There must be a proper alignment of the internal organizational activities and the organizational goals. To put it simply Guesalaga and Johnston (2010) described that the organisational activities of different departments must be holistically aligned to the goals and objectives related to the customer value generation. Sherman et al (2003) proposed that the strategic account management should be viewed as a process of conducting business and not simple a selling process. The concept of inter-organizational alignment suggests that the organizations should increase its overall understanding of the business concerns of the customers and creating value proposition through a â€Å"joint venture†. Eid and Trueman (2002) have mentioned that the strategic or key accounts management has

System analysis and design 251 Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

System analysis and design 251 - Essay Example Due to the disadvantages of this system, Helen McPherson seeks information systems that are crucial to the achievement of modern business organizations. Information systems are the hardware and software applications that sustain data-intensive functions. They involve  an integrated set of mechanisms for gathering, storing, and handling data and for provision of information, facts, and electronic products (Stair and Reynolds 2013, 120). Business corporations (OT included) and other institutions depend on information systems to implement and manage their functions, interrelate with their consumers and suppliers, and contend in the marketplace to gain competitive advantage. With this system in place OT will be able to serve their customers efficiently and accurately. This Functional Requirements Report provides information system fundamentals that will facilitate the Customer Booking system including accommodation booking of OT (Stair and Reynolds 2013, 156-200). This Functional Requirements Report identifies the required system capabilities that would enhance OT customer booking and accommodation facilities to improve general performance of OT (Institute for Systems and Technologies of Information, Control and Communication 2006, 264). The capability of incorporating IT efforts with business activities and purposes. This potential is to administer organizational preparations, structure procedures and staffing tacking any predicaments in OT booking arrangements Functional Requirements Report provides new information system’s scope through context Data Flow diagram. It is easy to analyze the scope through the diagram. This Functional Requirements Report identifies the below procedures as critical information system that would enhance OT’s customer booking system. OT novel customer booking system allows integrate OT management, accommodation department, customer request, departures, marketing, and

Term paper Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2250 words

Term paper - Essay Example Though Liajiaxia Hydroelectric Power Station is producing clean energy, it, ironically, has caused several changes in the ecological system of the Kanbula Forest. This paper aims to provide an exposition about the characteristics of the Kanbula National Park; determine the impact of Lijiaxia Hydro Power Plant on the ecological process within Kanbula National Park and; propose several ways of wildlife and forest management while taking into consideration the present condition of the Kanbula National Park. Introduction A forest ecosystem primarily consists of trees and other naturally growing plants. It also nurtures various types and species of animals. A forest ecosystem, such as the Kanbula Forest, provides people with food, fuel, timber and fiber as well. Most people do not fully recognize the importance of forests in their lives. However, it should be noted that, among other things, forests protect the hydrologic cycle. They also help in climate regulation by basically being natur al sinks of carbon, which is one of the greenhouse gases that harm the planet (Espaldon et al, 2004). Kanbula forest is one of the most diverse forests in China. Huge mountains, covered with trees, extend from the forest. There are deflated hills around the forest that are formed due to erosion from wind and sand. The hills are called red cloud landforms. What is more, other than the huge number of flora and fauna therein, Kanbula forest is also quite rich in natural resources. However, the ecological system of the forest is at risk of destruction due to several issues related to human activity. The primary factor affecting the ecosystem within the forest is the Lijiaxia Hydro Power Plant, which has been causing changes therein from the time of its establishment to the present. These factors have effected changes in the National Forest Park, and these changes have, in turn, affected various wildlife species and their habitat. This includes their numerical depletion in the area from trapping, hunting and human expansion into their habitat. As per Sajise et al, major causes of forest destruction include industrialization, commercialism and weak enforcement of forest laws (1996). This paper will dig deeper into several issues that Kanbula National Park is facing, and how these issues or factors impact the ecological system thereof. Effect of Hydro Power Plant on Ecosystem Hydroelectric Power Plants can also cause destruction to the aquatic ecosystem. The dams along the Pacific and Atlantic course have reduced the fish population especially that of Salmon by preventing the fish to reach breeding grounds upstream (Duncan, Graham-Rowe., 2005). Downstream river environment is also affected thereby; water coming out of the turbine usually contains very little suspended sediment that leads to river scouring and loss of riverbanks and riverbeds. Since turbine gates are cyclically opened, changes in river flow are observed. Water coming out of the turbines is usually war mer than water behind the dam and, thus, the aquatic faunal life is affected. Hydroelectric power plants in tropical regions produce huge amount of methane and carbon dioxide gas. This is because of plant materials in flooded areas that decay due to anaerobic conditions and form methane gas, which is a harmful greenhouse gas. Greenhouse gas emissions from the hydroelectric reservoir may be higher than those of a conventional oil-fired thermal generation plant (Duncan,

Existence of God Argumentative Paper Essay Example for Free

Existence of God Argumentative Paper Essay There are many different types of arguments for the existence of God. With each argument there is a conception presented of God. For each argument there are different approaches. I will be focusing on the Cosmological and Teleological Arguments. Teleological Arguments are known to be arguments from divine, arguing from order in the universe to the existence of God (1).With the ordering of the universe, created by an intelligent being, they hold that it is ordered towards a purpose or an end. The Cosmological Argument â€Å"is the argument that the existence of the world or universe is strong evidence for the existence of a God who created it. It is a first caused argument where the existence of the universe, the argument claims, stands in need of explanation, and the only adequate explanation of its existence is that it was created by God† (1). Behind this argument, it holds that though the universe still needs explanation for its existence, the existence of God Himself does not. In the article McCloskey is critical of these arguments for God’s existence supporting his stance by offering the problem of evil as reasoning to not believe. He believes the belief in the existence of God is not a source of strength and security (2). However, if we are to use the Cumulative Case approach we can have successive truths. This case cumulates the Cosmological, Teleological, as well as, the Moral Arguments together. It gives us the conclusion of a personal, moral, intelligent creator of the universe as the best explanation for the universe we experience (3). McCloskey maintains that the Teleological Argument is not satisfactory and that it can be rejected simply by rejecting its premise. The premise holds that there is in fact evidence of purpose and design. McCloskey says though, that there were many things that were considered evidence or proof, prior to evolution, but those very things are now not being considered as so. Thus, in order to be a proof, there has to be given indisputable examples. Given that the Teleological Argument, presenting disputable examples, says McCloskey, there is no proof. There can be no form of argument with evidence of an intellectual design and/or designer. I would have to argue with McCloskey by using the â€Å"fine-tuning argument.† Within the universe is nothing short of precision, not only of natural laws, but the beginning stages and state of the universe. These both are pointers to an intelligent Creator. The universe is finely-tuned maintaining physical constants of nature (5).The strength of gravity should be considered. With the occurrence of the Big Bang. The gravity had to have precision because even with a little more force used on either side, it would not have occurred as the Big Bang, but the Big Crunch. Even with the slightest change in gravity, it could change the world into something completely other than what we know. That which is being offered as evidenced cannot be questioned. If we were to give to evolution as truth, there is still no grounds for believing it is true. It does nothing but in the end support the theist position, and shows that evolution needs teleology. McCloskey’s main objection to theism is the presence of evil in the world, â€Å"No being who was perfect could have created a world in which there was unavoidable suffering or in which his creatures would(and in fact could have been created so as not to) engage in morally evil acts, acts which very often result in injury to innocent persons† (1). With this problem on McCloskey’s mind, he holds it to the theists. He still wonders how the theist does not take this to mind seeing that it goes against the perfection of the divine purpose. There can be no grounds in a belief of a perfect being. Even if all reason was thrown out, he says the theist at best could only present a pool of beings full of â€Å"concern, dismay, and anxiety, rather than comfort and security† (1). There is a logical problem of evil and there is logical inconsistency when there is both the existence of God and of evil. The atheist holds that there is severe contradiction between claiming God is good, yet evil exists. Mackie, an atheist, says the contradiction does not arise immediately; to show it we need some additional premisesthese additional principles are that good is opposed to evil, in such a way that a good thing always eliminates evil as far as it can, and that there are no limits to what an omnipotent thing can do. From these it follows that a good omnipotent thing eliminates evil completely, and then the propositions that a good omnipotent thing exists, and that evil exists, are incompatible(8). There exists two kinds of evil. There is â€Å"human evil,† and â€Å"natural evil† in which atheist claim are both forms of needless suffering. The logical problem of evil claims the â€Å"tension† between simultaneously having evil in the world, while also having a perfect God. This would without a doubt be a logical contradiction according to the atheist. There is also the evidential problem of evil. With this claim, there is not contradiction, but the fact that evil exists, if give grounding evidence for being able to reject that God is all-powerful. It is a weaker version of the former, and claims that it is highly unlikely that an all-perfect God exists. Plantinga responds with trying to defend that it is reasonable to believe in God, even without evidence. His position is kn own as â€Å"Reformed Epistemology†. In order for his view to hold he would have to reject the Evidentialist Credo., which he claims rests on Classical Foundationalism. This led him to his positive view, or â€Å"Reformed Epistemology.† This holds that a belief in God is â€Å"properly basic.†Some object to these claims, saying that evil is logically required for good and is needed for us to see the good. Evil is a means and will cause good. There is given the â€Å"free will† defense that is meant to try and answer the problem of evil. Either this would come about by humans free will resulting in a greater good and that evil is ascribed the humans and not God. However, those who oppose this, bring up the issue of natural evils. Mackie stands his ground that God should have given human beings free will in such a way that we always chose the good. The atheist propose God did not create men to choose between right and wrong, and that God is morally inconsistent. In response, the free will theodicy attempts to defeat the former by claiming the suffering of the innocent is justified because of the existence of free will. We as humans have misused our free will, thus what is known as ‘moral evil.’ Other sufferings from evil come from the natural evils. While McCloskey challenges the free will defense, Plantinga proposes the law of non-contradiction. He argues for there could be logically possible affairs whereby God would be unable of creating a world of both evil and autonomous humans (9). Evans puts it simply, â€Å"It does not seem to be true that a good being always eliminates evil as far as it can. What is true, perhaps, is that good being always eliminates evil as far as it can without the loss of a greater good or the allowance of a worse evil† (1). McCloskey objects to the cosmological argument claiming, â€Å"mere existence of the world constitutes no reason for believing in such a being†(1). There has been great objection to this however because of the fact of contingent objects. God is the â€Å"first cause,† the one who began it all. Because there is not explanation for contingent beings, if God is a necessary being, He is the necessary cause of the existence of creation and we as beings. God has no cause, otherwise He would not be God. It is the very existence of the world that implies the existence of God. The â€Å"laws of nature† imply the existence of a lawgiver, God. This position was held by Aristotle, holding firmly against the possibility of infinite regress. The argument from contingency suggests that it is possible the universe might not have existed, thus needing explanation of why it does in fact exist. In essence, it must have a cause. This leads to the belief in â€Å"necessary being,â⠂¬  meaning a being that needs no explanation. The temporal cosmological argument holds that the beginning of the universe was either caused or uncaused. However, objectors to this say we cannot actually claim whether the universe â€Å"had to exist.† Also, a â€Å"necessary being† comes into question. The refuters say this line of argument does not give enough explanation of why there could not be more than one cause. There is no ground for putting God as the first cause or prime mover. Time and causality as we know it cannot be grounds for explaining the beginnings of the universe. However, those objecting to McCloskey, hold if there were a being like the universe, then he would exist in time, thus he himself came into existence. But, the ultimate cause must not have come into existence. For it to be an ultimate cause, the ultimate Creator must be outside of time. (10).What McCloskey fails to realize, is that not every argument is going to capture every aspect of God. There are many different arguments that go abo ut doing that. If God does not exist, then all has no hope of immortality. Life, the world, and everything in it is meaningless. There would be no purpose or significance to anyone or anything. This leaves us with no ultimate meaning without immorality and God. Would we be able to say there was any purpose or meaning to someone who lived just to die? To be born just to pass out of existence? Lane says that it is not just each individual person that is headed towards the grave, but the universe itself is headed for extinction. This all in all is hopeless. Dying man, in a dying world. If this is the case, the small details in life do not matter, it does not make a difference. Our behaviors, our choices do not matter. Dotoyevsky said â€Å"If there is no immortality then all things are permitted† (11). Without God, there is no accountability, morality, or sense of right and wrong. Even more so, in a universe without God, good and evil do not exist (11). However, if we were to say there were no God, we would still be without purpose because we would just be accidental. We would just be accidents of chance. The only view that can save the human race from itself is a theistic view (11). The only thing going for an atheist is living with the fact of the absurdity of life. Such a view makes it impossible to live a fulfilling, happy life. For the atheist, absurdity of life and creating meaning for one’s life is a contradiction. A major disadvantage of atheism is that no one has hope or faith for reward of good or and punishment of evil. A believer’s hope is this, Christ. Ephesians 3:11 tells us that God had a purpose I mind before He created. Man within his own voluntary will would be able to love and choose God. Nature alone points to God. Humanity and the universe itself does not have to exist. Both are not self-existent but caused. There is no explanation for their existence. Within a Christian world view, life is not meaningless and pointless ending at the grave. We have hope in the resurrection and of eternal life. God and immortality are both necessary for a meaning full life (11). Bibliography 11- Craig, William Lane. The Absurdity of Life without God. In Reasonable Faith: Christian Truth and Apologetics, by William Lane Craig, 71-90. Wheaton: Crossway Books, 2008. 1-Evans, C. Stephen, and R. Zachary Manis. Philosophy of Religion: Thinking About Faith. Downers Grove: IVP Academic, 2009. 8- Kunkle,Brett. â€Å"The Logical Problem of Evil.† Truth Never Gets Old. April 21, 2009 2- McCloskey, H. J. On Being an Atheist. Question (1968): 63-69. 5- Biologos. â€Å"What is the â€Å"fine-tuning† of the universe, and how does it serve as a â€Å"pointer to God?† 9- http://kevinfannystevenson.blogspot.com/2012/07/on-being-theist-response-to-h-j.html 10- http://www.existence-of-god.com/first-cause-argument.html

Methods to Assess Groundwater Potential by Spring Locations

Methods to Assess Groundwater Potential by Spring Locations Abstract Regarding the ever increasing issue of water scarcity in different countries, the current study plans to apply support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and genetic algorithm optimized random forest (RFGA) methods to assess groundwater potential by spring locations. To this end, 14 effective variables including DEM-derived, river-based, fault-based, land use, and lithology factors were provided. Of 842 spring locations found, 70% (589) were implemented for model training, and the rest of them were used to evaluate the models. The mentioned models were run and groundwater potential maps (GPMs) were produced. At last, receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was plotted to evaluate the efficiency of the methods. The results of the current study denoted that RFGA, and RF methods had better efficacy than different kernels of SVM model. Area under curve (AUC) of ROC value for RF and RFGA was estimated as 84.6, and 85.6%, respectively. AUC of ROC was computed as SVM- linear ( 78.6%), SVM-polynomial (76.8%), SVM-sigmoid (77.1%), and SVM- radial based function (77%). Furthermore, the results represented higher importance of altitude, TWI, and slope angle in groundwater potential. The methodology produced in the current study could be transferred to other places with water scarcity issues for groundwater potential assessment and management. Key words: Geographic information system, Ardebil, Iran, Support vector machine, Random forest, Genetic algorithm Introduction Water scarcity is regarded as one of the most substantial soicio-environmental challenges in different countries. The demand on groundwater is increasing, and the overexploitation of this valuable resource is threatening future generations (Todd and Mays 2005; Rekha and Thomas 2007); Thus, its management is believed to be vital. A better water resources management plan would be possible when there is enough knowledge about the resources (i.e. high potential and susceptible zones). In recent years, researchers have made use of a variety of models to map groundwater potential such as frequency ratio (FR), weight of evidence (WofE), logistic regression (LR), index of entropy, evidential belief function (Oh et al. 2011; Ozdemir 2011a, b; Pourtaghi and Pourghasemi 2014; Davoodi Moghaddam et al. 2015; Naghibi and Pourghasemi 2015; Naghibi et al. 2015). Also, some researchers used machine learning methods including boosted regression tree (BRT), classification and regression (CART), general linear model (GLM), and RF algorithms in this field of study (Naghibi and Pourghasemi 2015; Rahmati et al. 2016). Lee et al (2012) employed artificial neural network (ANN) to assess groundwater productivity. Their results showed satisfactory performance of ANN. Recently [M1]Naghibi et al. (2017) used four recently developed data mining models including AdaBoost, Bagging generalized additive model, and naÃÆ' ¯ve bayes for groundwater potential mapping. They have also introduced a novel ensemble method from combination of the mentioned models and FR. In addition, Magaji et al. (2016) used geographic information system and evidential belief function model to produce groundwater recharge potential zones map. Theodossiou (2004) investigated how climate change influences the sustainability of groundwater in watershed-scale in Greece. Furthermore, Thivya et al. (2016) conducted a study to identify recharge mechanisms of groundwater in hard rock aquifers implementing stable isotopes. Support vector machine (SVM) algorithm has been employed in different fields of study such as flood susceptibility assessment (Tehrany et al. 2014; Tehrany et al. 2015), and landslide susceptibility investigation (Brenning 2005; Kavzogluetal 2014; Tien Bui et al. 2012; Yao et al. 2008; Yilmaz 2010; Tien Bui et al. 2015; Chen et al. 2017) with suitable efficacy. Genetic algorithm is one of the most advanced and pervasive developed heuristic search techniques in artificial intelligence and its application has been done in many fields of study including urban planning, ecological, climatic modelling, and remote sensing studies (Hasegava et al. 2013; Termansen et al. 2006; Chang et al. 2006; Chen et al. 2009). In the current study, we aim to investigate the performance of a novel method for optimization of random forest and its results are compared with RF and SVM models in groundwater potential mapping. Based on the literature review, application of different kernels of SVM and RFGA in groundwater potential mapping are two main novelties of this study. Also, the importance of different effective factors in groundwater potential is discussed. The results of the current study could determine high potential and susceptible groundwater potential zones and be used by water resource managers. Material and Methods Figure 1 shows the methods and the flowchart implemented in the current study. Study Area: The study area lies from 48 ° 18à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ² 26à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ³ to 48 ° 53à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ² 16à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ³ eastern longitudes and from 37 ° 41à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ² 23à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ³ to 37 ° 09à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ² 26à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ³ northern latitudes in Ardebil Province, Iran (Fig. 2). It covers an area of 1,524 km2. The elevation in the study area ranges from 840 to 3,320 m above sea level with an average of 1,930 m. The mean annual precipitation of Khalkhal region is measured as 345 mm. The mean annual temperature of Khalkhal region is 12 degrees Centigrade. In the respect of land use, 89.69% of Khalkhal region is covered by rangeland, and other land use classes are forest, agriculture, orchard, and residential areas. In the respect of lithology, Khalkhal region comprises of 14 lithological categories. Eav class (andesitic volcanic) covers most of the study area. Khalkhal region is located in Ardebil province of Iran which includes 14 hydrological watersheds. The se watersheds are located in three main parts including central part, Khoresh Rostam, and Shahrood areas. In this area people exploit water resources by wells (42%), springs (47%), and qanats (11%); therefore, it can be seen that a high percent of the water requirement is obtained by springs. Data preparation Spring characteristics The springs location map was prepared for the study area using national reports (Iranian Department of Water Resources Management) and extensive field surveys in 1:50,000 scale. From 842 springs identified in the study area, 70% (589 springs) were considered for training purpose, and 30% (253 springs) were used as validation dataset (Fig. 2). Approximately ninety percent of the springs are permanent and ten percent of them are seasonal. Discharge of the springs in Khalkhal region alters between 0.1 and 100 liters per second having an average of 1 liter per second. It can be seen that there are different kinds of spring in the study area such as contrast, drainage, and fracture springs with 5.34%, 29.81%, 58.08%, and 6.77% of the springs, respectively. The average pH of the springs is measured as 6.68. The average electric conductivity (EC) of the springs is measured as 470 . Groundwater effective factors In this study, based on the literature review (Ozdemir 2011a, b; Oh et al. 2011; Naghibi et al. 2017), fourteen groundwater effective factors such as altitude, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, slope length (LS), SPI, TWI, distance from rivers, river density, distance from faults, fault density, land use, and lithology were provided and mapped. The digital elevation model (DEM) of the Khalkhal region was created using the 1:50,000-scale topographic maps in 20 m resolution. Groundwater effective-factors such as altitude, slope angle, and slope aspect were prepared using DEM in ArcGIS 9.3 and represented in Fig. 3a-c. Plan curvature describes the divergence and convergence of flow and discriminates among basins (Fig. 3d). Profile curvature shows the rate at which the slope gradient alters in the direction of maximum slope (Catani et al. 2013) (Fig. 3e). Slope length is the combination of the slope length and slope steepness that shows soil loss potential from the combined slope features (Fig. 3f). SPI is a measure of the erosive power of flowing water based on the assumption that discharge is relative to specific catchment area (Moore et al. 1991) (Fig. 3g). The TWI affects accumulation and movement of surface runoff over the land surface (Elmahdy and Mostafa Mohamed 2014) (Fig. 3h). Distance from rivers and river density were created using topographical map of Khalkhal region (Fig. 3i, j). Also, distance from fault and fault density layers were produced using geological map (Fig. 3k, l). The land use map was created using Landsat images (Fig 3m). There are five land use classes in the study area such as agriculture, forest, orchard, rangeland, and residential area. Most of the study area is covered by the rangeland land use class. The lithology map was acquired using a 1:100,000-scale geological map and the lithological units were grouped into fourteen classes (GSI 1997, Fig. 3n, Table 1). Support vector machines (SVM) SVM is known as a supervised machine learning technique that is performed based on the (SRM: structural risk minimization) principle and statistical learning theory (Tien Bui et al. 2012). SVM transforms original input space into a higher-dimensional feature space to find an optimum separating hyper plane. Marjanovic ´ et al (2011) affirmed that separating hyper-plane is built in the original space of n coordinates between the points of two distinct classes. If the point is situated over the hyper-plane it will be classified as positive 1, if not, it will be classified as negative 1. Penalty (C) controls the trade-off between margin and training errors, which assists to prevent the models over-fitting (Marjanovic ´ et al. 2011). The kernel width (É ¤) controls the degree of nonlinearity of the model (Tien Bui et al. 2012). Parameter (d) is the polynomial degree in the PL kernel function and (r) is the bias term in the kernel function for two kernels of SVM including PL and SIG kernels (Tehrany et al. 2014). In the current study, the 10-fold cross-validation was used to select the optimal kernel parameters of SVM (Pradhan 2013; Zhuang and Dai 2006). Random forest (RF) model Random forests (RFs) are very flexible and powerful ensemble classifiers based on decision trees which were firstly developed by Breiman (2001). RF constructs multiple trees based on random bootstrapped samples of the training dataset (Breiman 2001). The algorithm runs random binary trees that implement a subset of the observations over bootstrapping approach, of the initial dataset a random choice of the training data is selected and implement to create the model, the data which is not included are described as out of bag (OOB) (Catani et al. 2013). The RF predicts the importance of a variables by looking at how much the error of prediction increases when out of bag data for that variable is permuted while all others are left fixed (Liaw and Wiener 2002; Catani et al. 2013). Random forests need two parameters to be tuned including the number of trees (ntree), and the number of variables (mtry). Genetic algorithm (GA) model A genetic algorithm (GA) is a search heuristic which mimics the natural selection process in the field of artificial intelligence. GA beings with a population of presented random solutions in some structure series. Then, a number of operators are repeatedly implemented, until convergence is obtained. As a matter of fact, the optimization strategy in GA could be described as a global optimization procedure with the benefit of not being dependent on the initial value to gain the convergence. Crossover and mutation are implemented to produce newer and better chromosomes populations (Yetilmezsoy and Demirel 2008). Random forest optimization methods In this study, we used two different methods for RF parameter optimization including caret package and genetic algorithm. Both of the models were applied in the R software. At first, we presented a hybrid RFGA model to predict groundwater potential which was firstly introduced by Hasegawa et al (2013) in the field of commute mode choice analysis. A simple method is trial and error, but there are many mixtures of parameters, and it needs much iteration to evaluate the options. Another method for optimization of these parameters is to use caret package. So, we proposed a practical method for optimizing the parameters of RF by meta- heuristic optimization using GAs. The rgenoud package of the R program (R Core Team 2012); Mebane and Sekhon (2011) were used to implement the optimizing process of RF parameters ntree and mtry. Input parameters of the RFGA model are subject to the GA-based parameter optimization process. Only that pair of parameters that minimizes the OOB error rate in this step is used as input to the RFGA model. For running RFGA, maximum number of generations was considered as 100, the population size was 300 and the domain of allowable valu es for each parameter of the function being optimized (mtry values between 1 and 14, ntree values between 1 and 2000). The run time of this process till the calculation is complete was approximately 2 h 20 min. Validation of groundwater potential maps (GPM) In the current study, receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to determine the performance of the GPMs produced using the implemented models. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) shows the quality of a forecast system by representing the ability of the system to predict correctly the occurrence or nonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ occurrence of specific events (Negnevitsky 2002). The area under the curve of ROC ranges from 0 to 1. The qualitative relationship between AUC and prediction accuracy could be classified as excellent (0.9-1), very good (0.8-0.9), good (0.7-0.8), average (0.6-0.7), and poor (0.5-0.6). Based on the reviewer comment, and in order to consider the discharge values of the springs, two weights were assigned to the springs to take their discharge into account in the evaluation process. For conducting this idea, median was calculated for discharge values of the springs. Then, weight 2 was assigned to the springs with greater discharge than the median value, while othe r springs were assigned to a weight of 1. Finally, for calculating ROC values, values of the springs with weight 2 were considered twice in the analysis, while other springs were considered once. This procedure enhances the influence of the springs with higher discharges in the evaluation process. Results Support vector machine In the current study, four kernels of the SVM model were optimized by cross-validation and GPMs were plotted in ArcGIS 9.3. Based on the results, the best SVM with LN kernel had a cost value of 0.001. The results of PL kernel showed that gamma=0.5, cost= 0.1, and degree= 2 had the best performance. In the case of SVM-SIG, best performance was gained by gamma= 1, and c= 0.01. The results of SVM-RBF showed that gamma= 0.5, c= 10 had the best performance. The resultant GPMs produced using different kernels of the SVM are represented in Fig. 5 and Table 2. According to the results, low, moderate, high, and very high classes in GPM produced by SVM-LN occupy 15.88, 36.05, 33.75, and 14.32% of the study area, respectively. Low, moderate, high, and very high classes in SVM-PL cover 3.38, 22.12, 47.52, and 26.98% of the study area, respectively. In the case of SVM-SIG, 22.87, 32.98, 30.50, and 13.64% of the study area were designated to the low, moderate, high, and very high classes, respectively. The results of SVM-RBF showed that low, moderate, high, and very high classes cover 22.01, 45.85, 22.39, and 9.74% of the study area, respectively. Random forest (RF), and genetic algorithm optimized random forest (RFGA) As mentioned in the methods section, two methods were used to optimize RF model including caret and genetic algorithm. Final model by RF-caret had ntree= 1600, and mtry= 2, while final model by RFGA had ntree= 1744, and mtry= 2. The results showed that out of bag error for RFGA (0.316) was lower than its value for RF-caret (0.35%). Also, the results of the ROC analysis showed better performance of RFGA than RF-caret by area under the curve of ROC values of 86.5, and 85.6, respectively. Considering the better performance of the RFGA model, its results about the importance of effective factors and final GPM were represented and the results of RF-caret were ignored. Figure 4 represents the mean decrease accuracy, and mean decrease Gini obtained by RFGA. According to the mean decrease accuracy, altitude had the highest importance, followed by TWI, slope angle, and aspect, while the profile curvature, and plan curvature had lowest importance. On the other hand, results of the mean decrease Gini depicted that land use, and lithology were the least important factors in groundwater potential mapping. The GPM produced using RFGA is represented in Fig. 5. According to the results, low, moderate, high, and very high classes in GPM produced by RFGA occupy 27.2, 32.4, 25.5, and 14.8% of the study area, respectively. Validation of the GPMs The ROC was calculated for all GPMs with springs validation dataset. The results of AUC-ROC are represented in Fig. 6. AUC-ROC for GPMs produced by the implemented methods in the current study ranges from 76.9 to 85.5%. AUC-ROC values for RF and RFGA were estimated as 84.6, and 85.5%, respectively. AUC-ROC values were estimated for SVM- LN, SVM-PL, SVM-SIG, and SVM- RBF as 79.3, 77, 77.7, and 76.9%, respectively. Discussion In this section, the results are discussed by three parts including (i) the performance of the models, (ii) the importance of the effective factors, and (iii) the precision of the GPMs. The performance of the models: The results showed that RFGA represented better performance than RF-caret. One of the advantages of GA is the capability to solve any optimization problem based on chromosome approach; another important characteristic of GA is its capability to handle multiple solution search spaces and solve the problem in such an environment (Tabassum and Mathew 2014). These advantages may have caused RFGAs better performance in the current study. Also, it can be seen that both RFs (i.e. RF-caret and RFGA) had better performance than different kernels of SVM model. The results of different SVM kernels showed that SVM-LN had the best performance, followed by SVM-SIG, SVM-RBF, and SVM-PL; However, their performance was similar. Based on the results, it is evident that SVM could be used as an efficient machine learning model in groundwater potential mapping. One of the drawbacks of the SVM relates to the needed time for the analysis. In addition, several criteria should be tested in order to find the optimum values for the modeling process (Tehrany et al. 2015). However, the efficiency of the SVM could be increased by making ensemble models. In a research, Tehrany et al (2015) used an ensemble weights of evidence and SVM model in flood mapping. Their results proved the efficiency and strength of the ensemble method over the individual methods. There are several potential reasons for error in the datasets implemented for groundwat er modeling, including measurement errors, limitations in field data collection, sampling bias, etc. The mentioned errors could affect the overall accuracy of the SVM models (Moisen et al. 2006). The importance of effective factors in groundwater potential mapping The importance of effective factors was determined using RFGA as the best model in the current study. Based on the results, in total, altitude, TWI, slope angle, and slope aspect were the most effective factors on groundwater potential. On the other hand, plan curvature, profile curvature, land use, and lithology were the least effective factors on groundwater potential. A growing body of literature investigates the importance of different effective factors in groundwater potential mapping (Naghibi and Pourghasemi 2015; Rahmati et al. 2016). The results of Naghibi and Pourghasemi (2015) showed that altitude, distance from faults, SPI, and fault density had the highest importance in groundwater potential mapping. In another research, Rahmati et al (2016) depicted that altitude, drainage density, lithology, and land use were the most influence factors on groundwater potential. Comparing the results of the current study and the results of the two mentioned researches shows that the impo rtance of effective factors in groundwater potential mapping is dependent on the indicator, methods, and hydrological, geological, and climatic conditions of the target area. The precision of the GPMs: With this assumption that a better model is the one which determines the high and very high classes more precisely, a model with lower percent of high and very high classes area could be more helpful in water resources planning and management. A more precise GPM could help water resources managers to make better and more accurate decisions about areas for exploitation and even water conservation techniques. According to the results, SVM-RBF, and RFGA models had the lowest percent of the high and very high classes with 32.1, and 40.3% of the study area, respectively. Conclusion In general, the water crisis in the 21th century is much more related to management and planning than to a real crisis of scarcity and drought stress. Lack of knowledge of water resources and inappropriate water resources management plans and strategies have made water crisis worse in arid and semi- arid regions. Therefore, the first step in appropriate planning of water resources is to know and gain knowledge of these vital resources. Groundwater is one of the most important water resource supplies, especially in arid and semi- arid countries with extreme lack of water, growing population, and successive droughts. Considering the mentioned problems and issues, in the current study, we evaluated the performance of different kernels of SVM model and two strategies for optimization of RF (i.e. caret and GA). The results of the current study showed that RFGA had the best performance, followed by SVM-LN, SVM-SIG, SVM-RBF, and SVM-PL. The RFGA was successfully implemented in the current s tudy. Also, different kernels of the SVM were used for producing GPMs with acceptable performances. However, their result was not as well as RFs performance. Furthermore, it can be seen that altitude, TWI, slope angle, and slope aspect were the most effective factors in groundwater potential assessment. The methodology produced in the current study could be transferred and tested in other areas for producing GPMs. As a final conclusion, GPMs could significantly help water resources managers and planners for better understanding of water resources conditions, exploitation, and conservation plans.

Self Efficacy Education in Military Leaders

Self Efficacy Education in Military Leaders Integration of self efficacy education in development and training of South African military leaders. Introduction Twenty first century military leaders across the world face unusual challenges as organizations put in great effort to adapt to the ever accelerating rates of change internally and to the external environment within which they operate. Such rapid evolution in modern challenges does not only require equally evolved and revolutionary knowledge, skills and abilities of leaders, but more importantly it requires the self-conceptualizations of their leadership capabilities and psychological resources to meet the ever increasing demands of their functions. Given such complex challenges, it would be hard to imagine anyone following or being positively influenced by a leader who does not welcome or accept such challenges. Yet, there is not much being done in developing and educating current and future leaders within the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) about such leadership efficacy. Leadership efficacy is a specific form of efficacy associated with the level of confidence in the knowledge, skills, and abilities associated with leading others. It can thus be clearly differentiated from confidence in the knowledge, skills, and abilities one holds in relation to their function in the organisation. In this essay, it is argued that self efficacy education is paramount in training and development of modern and future leaders as the current conditions require leaders to continually rise to the occasion so as to meet complex challenges as well as have the necessary social and psychological aptitude to positively influence their foll owers and the organizations culture, climate, and performance. In order to be able to mobilize groups toward collective performance, leaders need the capability to exercise high levels of personal agency and create similar levels of agency in those individuals they are leading by proxy[1]. For the purpose of this essay, agency refers to acts done intentionally. Bandura[2] also states that central to leadership and its development, efficacy is the most pervasive among the mechanisms of agency and provides a foundation for all other facets of agency to operate. Efficacys relevant and comprehensive nature in meeting todays leadership challenges is captured by Lester et al in a statement that efficacy beliefs affect whether an individual will think in a self-enhancing or self-debilitating way, how well they motivate themselves and persevere in the face of difficulties, the quality of their well-being and their vulnerability to stress and depression, and the choices they make at important decision points[3]. There is a differentiation that can be made between leading behaviours of individual leaders and the leadership effects, which the essay explains as the resultant positive influences displayed in a group which the leader is a part of. The essay suggest that there is potentially great value in building a more comprehensive understanding of the contribution of leader efficacy in building collective leadership efficacy within a group. By pursuing this linkage, the essay intends to connect the literature on leader efficacy with the larger body of research on organizational behaviour to facilitate the discussion on the collective efficacy formed through the interactions between leaders and subordinates. Beyond this the essay will motivate that the strategy for developing South African military leadership should consider leaders efficacies for taking on the challenges of development and performance. Thus the motivation for integration of self efficacy education in development and training of military leaders and subsequent followers. Why self efficacy education in leadership development Self-efficacy has been the most widely studied form of efficacy and has received considerable attention in the fields of cognitive and social psychology through extensive theory building and research. Bandura2 defines self-efficacy as beliefs in ones abilities to mobilize the motivation, cognitive resources, and courses of action needed to meet situational demands. The believe that one can be the master of ones own destiny, whether as an individual or as an organisation is essential for future leaders in or out of the military environment. Lacking a sense of self efficacy means that people consider themselves subject to anything but their own ability to master the situation. They blame the elements, the environment, fate, foreigners, providence, history, economics or even God. The culture of dependency that has developed out of this is also a culture of intellectual poverty and lack of self esteem which leads people to seek and expect handouts, direct self explanatory orders and inst ruction from higher authority at every situation or task. The leader who brings a sense of efficacy to a situation is the one who restores people to a belief that they themselves control their own destiny and takes responsibility for their actions. Borne along by this conviction, the leader imparts it in words and deeds, inspiring followers to work together to achieve a new transformed reality. The leader draws inspiration from the meditation on the plight of the followers; they respond by endorsing and confirming the essential rightness of the mission, it is what subordinates desire the most. The finest exemplars of military leadership efficacy can be seen in General Collin Powell, Admiral Elmo Zumwalt, Major General Archer Lejeune to name a but few. Efficacy transforms a situation and this means more than effectiveness. Efficacy changes the whole picture to the point of even breaking the frame. To be effective is to be the cause of the result, but this is within given circumstances, it is not transformative. Lester et al3 proposed that positive psychological states such as efficacy directly promote effective leader engagement, flexibility and adaptability across the varying challenges characterizing complex organizational contexts. This is because higher levels of self efficacy provide the internal guidance and drive to create the agency needed to pursue challenging tasks and opportunities successfully. To this end McCormic et al[4]. concluded that leader self-efficacy, may be one of the most active ingredients in successful leadership, and team performance, and that it clearly contributes to leadership effectiveness. Development of Self-efficacy in leaders How leader efficacy influences a leader may differ depending on whether the efficacy is conceived in the preparatory context during learning and training situations or job performance situations. In his social cognitive theory, Bandura2 suggested that the optimal strength of self efficacy differs between the learning of a skill, which he called preparatory efficacy, and performing in the situations for which development is targeted, or job performance efficacy. Bandura further argued that though there is a positive linear relationship between performance efficacy and performance, the relationship between preparatory efficacy and learning is more complex. Machida and Schaulbroeck[5] explains that preparatory efficacy is different from an individuals beliefs about their general ability to learn, which is termed learning efficacy, the efficacy construct in focus here is ones efficacy for executing and completing a task during preparatory situations. Bandura2 explains that when individuals are highly efficacious in completing tasks and demonstrating skills in the preparatory or learning process, they often have little incentive to invest further effort into learning the skill. Though leaders efficacy about leading others during the actual execution of leadership roles might need to be higher for peak performance, leaders efficacy in leading others during leader development and preparatory phase might need to be lower so as to facilitate greater motivation to persist in learning and practicing the skills. The studies conducted by Machida and Schaulbroeck5 claim that there is a negative relationship between self-efficacy and learning. It seems likely that people who are too confident in their leadership abilities will not seek to invest their time and energy in developing their leadership ability as would individuals who have a more realistic sense of the scope of leadership activities. Machida and Schaulbroeck5 further proposed that the concept of efficacy performance spirals and has self-correcting cycles. According to these authors, an efficacy-performance spiral is a phenomenon in which increases or decreases in one variable of performance causes a similar change in the other variable of self efficacy which ultimately leads to a self-reinforcing trend in performance. Thus by amplifying upward efficacy performance spirals, individuals become complacent as they see their performance and their confidence improve despite lack of exploring alternative task strategies or increasing other preparatory activity such as by experimenting with new behaviours. This perspective supports Banduras argument that there are advantages to possessing lower level of self-efficacy in the context of completing a task during preparation and learning or development of skills2. Bandura argued that self-efficacy is a fluctuating property that changes constantly; however, he has not discussed what would be the ideal or preferred patterns of change in self-efficacy to maximize learning in the preparatory phases, such as leader development activities. Machida and Schaulbroeck5 proposed the concept of efficacy spirals in relation to organizational performance and collective efficacy. For optimal learning, leaders may need to maintain a self-correcting cycle by seeking to adjust their self-efficacy, increasing it or decreasing it in ways toward the objective of motivating investments in preparation. Another implication of efficacy performance spirals is that when leaders are learning to lead, repeated and uninterrupted failure, which will tend to decrease self-efficacy and encourage downward efficacy spirals, should be avoided. Such failure patterns are demoralizing and can even lead to a cycle of learned helplessness wherein the individuals come to believe that they have no control over performance improvement. For developmental tasks to be sufficiently challenging for development to occur, a high probability of failure must be inherent, however, to avoid situation whereby learners engage themselves in downward efficacy spirals, a self-correcting cycle must be encouraged by exposing the learners to possibly less difficult tasks and reminded of their developmental progress. During the development activities, leaders baseline self efficacy must ideally be set at a moderate level. As leaders encounter developmental challenges, their self-efficacy can and should fluctuate from this baseline self-efficacy level in the self-correcting cycle of efficacy change. Based on Banduras arguments concerning preparatory self-efficacy, it is believed that maintaining the motivation for learning during the process of leader development requires that ones baseline leader self-efficacy is not too low or too high. Thus, when individuals are developing their skills as leaders, it is critical that they are aided in maintaining a moderate level of self-efficacy to engage the self-correcting cycle of efficacy changes most effectively. Development of Self-efficacy in South African military leaders Having discussed the distinction between preparatory and performance efficacy, it is important to keep in mind that both preparatory and performance leader efficacy must be viewed in reference to the specific task of leading others in the defence organization. According to Bandura2 learning self-efficacy is not self-efficacy about performing a task during learning nor is it about how the individuals perceive his or her abilities in comparison to their peers rather, it refers to confidence about ones ability to learn a skill and accomplish a task. In his review of numerous studies, Bandura2 stated that the most potent antecedent to developing self-efficacy is mastery experiences based on past performance accomplishments. However, Bandura2 also made clear that prior success alone does not raise self efficacy. Development is influenced by how the individual interprets the success and the context that performance occurred in. This suggests mentoring that helps leaders make meaning of their prior leadership experiences is important in influencing development. Lester et al3 suggested that leaders identity construction occurs through social interaction, through claiming and granting of leadership. Individuals claim leadership through stepping up and attempting to influence others. Others then grant leadership through affirming and supporting that leaders attempts. Through this reciprocal process, individuals begin to see themselves as capable leaders, reinforcing a leader identity. It is therefore suggested that mentorship be incorporated into leadership training to foster leaders identity construction and grant affirming support. As experienced role models, mentors can be powerful sources to provide such external endorsement. The primary role of mentors must be to provide psycho-social support to learners, helping them to diagnose their prior actions, cast those actions in a positive light, and to serve as a source of validation for the learners. Machida and Schaubroek5 proposed that strong manifestation of a leaders identity ultimately requires endorsement from others, including ones mentor, peers, or followers. Furthermore, as mentors increase learners sense of competence, self-esteem, and efficacy, it can be expected that a spiral effect would occur as noted earlier. Specifically, it is expected that the learners would feel more encouraged and safe to explore their leadership than those without a mentor, and thus, increase attempts to claim leadership in th eir groups, thereby increasing leadership claim episodes. Mentorship relationships are expected to be the most effective method as role modelling exhibited by the mentor to the learners will influence development of leader efficacy beliefs by the learners. Mentors will primarily be expected to act as role models who will walk learners through prior or future leadership behaviour and performance, helping them to cognitively replicate and learn aspects of successful performance. Selected mentors should be attractive role models that serve as the prototype upon which learners may identify and base their future development. The mentor must be a role model to the learner such that respective learners begin to believe that they too can develop toward and achieve performance levels similar to their mentor and role model.. According to Bandura1 leader efficacy can also be developed through modelling, whereby learners study and observe competent and relevant role models successfully performing similar tasks, or cognitively model leadership experiences through study and envisioning successful performance by past leaders. The impact that modelling and in-depth observations hold is influenced by the attractiveness of the role model to the learners, the level of similarity between the observed model and the learners characteristics relevant to the task, and how similar the observed tasks are to those tasks the learners may be expected to perform. Bandura1 also notes that social persuasion ,which constitutes a primary role inherent in mentoring is another way of developing self efficacy. In congruence to Bandura, Lester et al3 explains that even when feedback is negative like discussing an incident of poor performance, mentors can provide feedback in a positive manner, highlighting what was learned and how that feedback can then be used to enhance future performance. What is critical in this factor is that mentors must instil in the individual learners the importance of growing and developing from all sorts of feedback, which is expected to influence thelearners efficacy regarding his or her leadership. This approach is also in line with evidence provided by Lester et al3, showing how individualized consideration associated with transformational leadership positively relates to leader development and performance. Another process of developing self-efficacy is according to Bandura1, psychological, physiological, and emotional arousal. In this instance, mentors would be required to serve in the role of inspiring learners to motivate their development. Such stimulation can, according to Machida and Schaubroeck5 be generated through inspirational motivation or creating an idealized vision for the learners as well as through sources of emotional infection, whereby mentors enthusiasm is transferred to learners and stimulates them to advance their development of leader efficacy. Organized mentorship programs are known to be effective in developing various positive outcomes in learners, the essay suggest that mentorship programs targeting the primary sources of efficacy identified by Bandura as discussed above would be particularly effective in raising learners leader efficacy and performance. It is further suggested that these discussed sources of efficacy be made to be innate in the role of any eff ective mentor and mentoring relationship. It is clear by now that this essay proposes that mentoring will increase learners leader efficacy more so than the traditional group based training for leadership development. Based on the research and theory reviewed above, it is suggested that by developing a more individualized   training relationship between the mentor and learners, the promotion of positive trajectories of leader development in the SANDF will be improved. A mentoring program will have a more positive impact on leader efficacy development and performance enhancement than the generalized, ready-made leader training interventions being practiced in the SANDF today because of the degree that the mentors will connect to their individual learners needs, abilities and aspirations. An individualized focus will help target learners specific needs and capabilities, enhancing efficacy development. It seems reasonable to expect that one on one mentoring, on average, will provide more consistent opportunities for the mentor to employ the four methods identified by Bandura1 for developing self-efficacy and to adjust the leader development intervention to the exact needs of the learners, thus enhancing learners efficacy and performance. Conclusion The essay described the multifaceted role of self efficacy in leader development. Furthermore the essay visited self efficacy related concepts proposed in the psychological literature, including preparatory self-efficacy, efficacy spirals and performance self-efficacy and has made suggestions about ways in which these concepts can be integrated into the current context of leader development in the SANDF. Judgments concerning leadership abilities as conveyed by mentors and interpreted by budding leaders as they experience successes and failures are essential for the development of highly effective leaders for the future. It is perhaps a clichà © that leaders are constantly required to learn and develop in this rapidly changing world. Coming to grips with this truism however requires a developmental process that comprehends the distinctions between leaders preparatory situations and their performance situations, identifies the personal and contextual factors that influence efficacy beliefs of leaders, and finally integrates a multifaceted perspective of leader efficacy in a way that promotes continuously positive learning trajectories. It is hoped that the essay will encourage training of practices that more effectively balance the needs for SANDF leaders to perform in the short term with the imperative that they learn and are adaptive in the longer term as well as inspire further res earch in the subject matter. BIBLIOGRAPHY Bandura, A. Self-efficacy: The exercise of control. New York: W. H. Freeman. (1997). Bandura A. Self efficacy in changing societies. New York: Cambridge University press. (2002) Lester PB, Hannah ST, Harms PD, Vogelgesang GR and Avio BJ. Mentoring impact on leader efficacy development: A field experiment. Academy of management learning and education, review 10,no3(2011) Machida M and Schaubroeck J. The role of self efficacy beliefs in leader development. Journal of leadership and organisational studies, review 18, no 459(2011) McCormic MJ, Tanguma J and Lopez-Forment AS. Extending self efficacy theory to leadership: A review and empirical test. Journal of leadership education, Review 1, no2(2002). [1] Bandura A. Self efficacy in changing societies. New York: Cambridge University press. (2002) [2] Bandura, A. (1997). Self-efficacy: The exercise of control in McCormic MJ, Tanguma J and Lopez-Forment AS. Extending self efficacy theory to leadership: A review and empirical test. Journal of leadership education, Review 1, no2(2002) [3] Lester PB, Hannah ST, Harms PD, Vogelgesang GR and Avio BJ. Mentoring impact on leader efficacy development: A field experiment. Academy of management learning and education, review 10,no3(2011) [4] McCormic MJ, Tanguma J and Lopez-Forment AS. Extending self efficacy theory to leadership: A review and empirical test. Journal of leadership education, Review 1, no2(2002). [5] Machida M and Schaubroeck J. The role of self efficacy beliefs in leader development. Journal of leadership and organisational studies, review 18, no 459(2011)

Cross-cultural Learning Essay -- Personal Narrative Essay Example

I was lucky enough to be raised in a family that strongly felt its Irish and Celtic heritage should be celebrated. From them, I learned the beauty of my own culture, and an appreciation to learn the cultures of others. I brought that appreciation with me through life, and found it to make all the difference. Â   My earliest cross-cultural experience that I can remember with clarity was the Spanish exchange student who was hosted by one of my aunts. Mai not only taught me about her culture, which in turn piqued an interest in the Spanish/Latino culture that continues to this day, but she also helped me to appreciate many small, seemingly insignificant aspects of my own culture. Â   I built upon my cross-cultural experiences as I befriended exchange students from Belgium, Japan, and Korea. Each time, the friendships enriched my appreciation and understanding of not only my own culture, but the very concept of culture. What falls under the cultural blanket can vary from person to person, and I found it to be very interesting that while one person could claim lan...

Wind Power as an Alternative Energy Source Essay -- Energy Power Globa

Wind Power as an Alternate Energy Source Graphics not Included ABSTRACT The United States' main source of energy is currently fossil fuels. However, we know that fossil fuel supply continues to deplete and sooner or later, the United States will need to resort to a new source of energy. This report hopes to explore the advantages and disadvantages of wind power using model regions. These regions have experience in using wind power, which may help us determine whether or not it is a suitable source of energy when fossil fuels are completely drained. From examining Denmark and other places benefiting from this clean and unlimited source of wind power, we believe that the United States possesses enough wind, money, and other resources to use wind power as a main future source of energy. INTRODUCTION Wind is air with kinetic energy. It is formed at different positions on the Earth's surface. Warm air heated up by the sun expands and rises while cool air moves in to take its place creating winds. Wind is a renewable energy, which is means that as long as the sun is still shining, wind will remain. The use of windmills to slow down the speed of wind can generate electricity. The wind flowing through the blade causes lift; which in turn, makes the blades rotate. These blades are attached to a drive shaft, which is connected to an electric generator that creates electricity. See figure 1. QuickTime? and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. Fig 1(Wind Energy-Energy from Moving Air, 2005) Scientists say that there are many possible sites for windmills and that 37 states are capable of generating electricity through wind power (Wind Energy?Energy from Moving Air, 2005). An average wi... ...nergyfacts/sources/renewable/wind.html Willis, Bill (2002) Wind Power. WCS Science, retrieved August 1, 2005, from http://www.wcsscience.com/windpower/page.html DeLespinasse, Paul F. (January 2004) How Many Windmills Would $87 Billion Buy? Common Dreams NewsCenter, retrieved August 1, 2005, from http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0112-07 (no author) (no date) Food, Land, Population, and the U.S. Economy. CARRYING CAPACITY NETWORK, retrieved August 1, 2005, from http://www.carryingcapacity.org/resources.html (no author) (June 2005) North Dakota Wind Energy Development. American Wind Energy Association, retrieved August 2, 2005, from http://www.awea.org/projects/northdakota.html Akselsson, Mattias. (September 2004) The World's Leader in Wind Power. Scandinavica, retrieved August 2, 2005, from http://www.scandinavica.com/culture/nature/wind.htm

Learning In A Highly Structured Environment Essay

Some people say that education is best imparted in a desciplined and structured environment, while others say that education should be the product of freedom and spontaneity. This issue, as stated in the passage, is debatable but a closer examination brings out some factors which certainly reveals that education is most effective when the students are allowed to express themselves. First, it is imperative that students, the recipent of knowledge, should always stay keenly interested to receive that knowledge. there is a very old saying that â€Å"all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy’. Hence, the educators should always try and keep a playful environment in their classes or institutes. Seggregating study and play hours will, however, have an adverse effect, as it will make children look forward to the play hours and hence not give attention in the study hours. Indeed, the best solution is to make the very study environment itself full of fun activities, thus encouraging the students to engage in more creative activities through out their study hours. Also, this approach will also stop the students from craving for time separately when they can enjoy themselves. Furthermore, such an environment will also enable the teachers to recognize the strenghts and weaknesses of their students more correctly. The teacher student relationship would be more like friends, and students will be encouraged to share everything with them. Second, we must keep in mind that we live in an ever changing society. And the rapid change demands rapid adaptations. Although formal education is a must for such adaptations, too much of it can be harmful. Children must be aquanted with diverse situations from their childhood, but without forcing it on them. Thus, the best way to do that is by giving them an flexible educational system. It would enable them to recognize the best way how to deal with various situations and overcome difficulties, which would be a great boon when they grow up. For example, a society would be much more healthy and dynamic if, rather than teaching each oif 100 students to solve a math problem in the same way, educators encourage students to try different methods and adopt the one that suits them best. Third, and perhaps the most important, is that education is not gained through bookish knowledge only. That sort of knowledge can only take a person upto a certain point, but going beyond would require the personal experience and knowledge of the individual. Since, it is a known fact that children without education have more diverse ideas than grown ups with years of education, letting the former express their ideas is certainly the best way to educate them. For example, Rabindranath Tagore, the famous poet and nobel laureate, is still considered one of the best poet of all time, yet he had not received any formal education as a child. A person can have all the theoritical knowledge about a guitar, but practicing with a guitar will actually enable him to play it.Discipline, routine are virtues that cannot be done without, but they should be allowed to grow in a person naturally, and not forcibly. To conclude, i would say that although formal education in a disciplined, routine environment does have its own good points, they are certainly outweighed by the approach of imparting education in an informal environment. Thus, i strongly believe that true education can only be given when the students are allowed to express themselves in a free, unbound atmosphere, which will enable them to achive great heights in future.

Walt Disney World

Case Study: Walt Disney World Question 1: Suppose competing attractions, such as Sea World and Universal Studios, lower their prices of adminission. How should WDW respond? The issue of competitive price is close to the supply and demand one. As long as people willing to pay whatever the price parks set, especially WDW, why would they change? WDW provides such a high-quality offer than it is impossible to lower his prices; it could try to keep them steady. Even if the company decides to lower prices, it should do it in a significant way in order to attract more customers.For instance a $5 reduction in the price of admission would provoke any major changes. They would probably have to drop price below their competitors to make true gain. Besides, from a branding stand point, lowering prices sends a mixed message to consumers (adults with purchasing power) : indeed in customers mind, it would signal something goes wrong. Actually the price is an essential part of firms positioning and it would be difficult for WDW to position itself as the premiere theme park with lower prices than competitors; it is also un-strategic to re-position.WDW strategy has not to do with the credo â€Å"cheapest always win†. The corporation has to play on differentiation and keep playing its leadership positioning; it means making your product unique in some ways to maintain your competitiveness. The following paragraph deal with all WDW differentiation factors. WDW uniqueness criteria -Marketing: WDW propose a complete offer for adults and/or children (families). The variety of this offer (several theme parks such as EPCOT or Animal Kingdom, other activities such as golf or wildlife, several hostels and prices segments†¦) makes customers able to customize their vacations.WDW provides multi-experience. -Communication: the firm must keep using a multi-channel and multi-media strategy to spread its marketing messages including as many new technologies as possible. -Innovation & Ideas generation: WDW must preserve theâ€Å"environnement for supportive conficts† it created through its meetings: Gong Show, Charettes with architects and theme park designers, Movie Development meetings. – Common sense & Discipline: This is the practical part of WDW uniqueness because necessary to test ideas, especially from a fiscal and financial point of view. Indeed ood ideas need time that is the reason why WDW creative process goes against quick actions and audience research. -Creativity: As M. Eisner said â€Å"Together conflict & common sense yield creativity†. We can add that WDW culture of diversity and fun take parts in the creative process: diverse point of views and individualism lead to frictions, conflicts, debates that are essential to get great solutions. -Facilities and Employees: in facts, WDW employees competent, well-trained and friendly. That is a crucially important factor because most of them are directly in contact with customers.No need to justify how essential the sense of contact is in business. Furthermore, all the attractions in theme parks are totally safe; all the facilities (hostels, restaurants included) are clean, linked each other (monorail, boats†¦) and electrically connected.. We notice also that WDW is technologically competent: it is a leader in product development, equipments design and maintenance, industrial engineering†¦for instance WDW design and manage perfectly attractions waiting lines: customers are sensitive about the time they have to use rides. All these aspects are visible for customers Branding Image: all the previous criteria are parts of the branding image; WDW brand is the amount of thousands and thousands small actions (â€Å"pointillist painting†). In particular Mickey and Disney characters, the castle are the symbol that contains all the stories the company created, the dreams and thoughts it suggest to children. Thus, if competitors lower their p rices, WDW should not change its prices and by the same time keep guarding its brand trough all the strategic decisions especially for marketing: WDW messages should be focused on the quality of the product.Question 2: How can WDW utilize customer information better to increase its volume of business? First and foremost, we should have in mind the term â€Å"forecasts† when we deal with customer information topics. Indeed WDW, due to his forecasts department, accumulates data on consumer’s attendance but also consumer’s behavior. All the other departments of the firm (like Labor Management, Maintenance, Finance, Park Theme Design) have access to this precious information which will be used for a set of management decisions to increase volumes and profits.That information can be predicted daily, weekly, monthly or for several years (till five years). In order to understand how customer information is utilized, a look at the forecasting process is necessary; 1- Wh at are the data sources? There are 3 main sources: -The guests in theme parks, hostels, restaurants†¦this is the more direct source. -The employees. For this category we could say that it has nothing to do with consumer information.Actually it has for at least two reasons: first employees can be directly in contact with guests and their recommendations are precious; secondly we could see each employee as a consumer into the firm and improve their working environnement leads to improve final customer satisfaction. – The travel industry professionals because they have their own data bases. 2- How WDW get them? Through surveys (questionnaires, interviews, focus group techniques†¦). All kind of topics could be dealt with but the two most important are customers experiences future Travel Plan. 3- How WDW process these data?Thanks to such models as judgmental, economic, moving-average models, regression analysis, monthly forecasting mode. Each model take into account a ce rtain number of variables like gross domestic product, cross-exchange rates, airline specials†¦ 4- Forecasts This is a major step in the decision- making process. All these consumer information and their analysis by models enable WDW to forecast consumer behavior (attendance in particular). Thus WDW can manage demand taking proper decisions about the capacity planning, the number of required employees, the due quantity of food and beverage†¦Question 3: What weaknesses or limitations do you see in WDW strategy? Ops Strat s WDW strategy is coherente but we can observe some accurate failures especially in operations strategy. Let’s remind the operations process framework and colour in blue the specific â€Å"failing fields†: Product Design Process Design Location/ Layout Cap. planning/Forecasts Work Organization Operations execution Of course other fields like merchandising or Facilities development are concerned. In the following paragraphs we focused on all of those black points. Prices of admissionFirstly, we can put forward the fact that WDW does not compete on prices (especially price of admission). From a positioning point of view it is logical: WDW is a leader in entertainment industry and bet on quality, innovation and uniqueness. But in time of global economical crisis, customers may desire a lower cost product; and there are serious competitors able to propose such offer: Sea World, Universal Studios†¦Of course children are attracted by WDW and can convinced relatives but the final decision remains to adults who get the purchasing power. Hotel development strategyThen we should notice the expanding strategy for WDW hostels: it does not deal with short term demands. Long term demand is not so much reliable when economy is disrupted. Thus Disney occupancy rates above 90% much of the year which is not sufficient anymore. Synergies & organization -Another point is the fact that WDW meet some difficulties to create synergies because of its top management. It is a problem of hierarchy, organization, authority delegation and culture. Actually the main problem could be that it is hard to delegate autonomy, to create empowerment among the group. We should notice that the hierarchy reorganization tends to create duplications (cf: example of a person running movies in Italy reporting to two executives): several hierarchical levels are added. Actually WDW is a hybrid structure; it is in time of mutation or transition.Profits & Losses – WDW experienced losses in home-video earnings because of strategic decisions that lengthen the release cycle for certain animated movie classics. It could be a problem of product development (cf: The product Development Funnel and especially Products Design step) or process engineering. The consumer products department also knew difficulties. Actually it is a matter of merchandising, especially concerning licensed-characters. This problem deals directly with consumer behavior (in-store purchases, on-line purchases†¦). -Concerning the Interactive media division, Disney experienced huge losses (source: Disney Fiscal Year Results). Actually the group invested in self-published video games (video games that are published by their author) and it needs more times to be profitable. -It goes the same for Internet (Go. com, Disney. com, ESPN. com†¦).It is s a crucial business field but investments cost a lot. To conclude we could qualify WDW weaknesses and limitations as mainly cyclical strategic problems . They are not structural even though it could deal with the organization (organization chart) and we can afford to say that those difficulties are temporary. The only structural change that has affected deeply the company concerned consumers attitude. â€Å"Disney still knows how to sweep people off their feet†, better than anyone else but the corporation needs to take into account new habits and expectations. Walt Disney World Case Study: Walt Disney World Question 1: Suppose competing attractions, such as Sea World and Universal Studios, lower their prices of adminission. How should WDW respond? The issue of competitive price is close to the supply and demand one. As long as people willing to pay whatever the price parks set, especially WDW, why would they change? WDW provides such a high-quality offer than it is impossible to lower his prices; it could try to keep them steady. Even if the company decides to lower prices, it should do it in a significant way in order to attract more customers.For instance a $5 reduction in the price of admission would provoke any major changes. They would probably have to drop price below their competitors to make true gain. Besides, from a branding stand point, lowering prices sends a mixed message to consumers (adults with purchasing power) : indeed in customers mind, it would signal something goes wrong. Actually the price is an essential part of firms positioning and it would be difficult for WDW to position itself as the premiere theme park with lower prices than competitors; it is also un-strategic to re-position.WDW strategy has not to do with the credo â€Å"cheapest always win†. The corporation has to play on differentiation and keep playing its leadership positioning; it means making your product unique in some ways to maintain your competitiveness. The following paragraph deal with all WDW differentiation factors. WDW uniqueness criteria -Marketing: WDW propose a complete offer for adults and/or children (families). The variety of this offer (several theme parks such as EPCOT or Animal Kingdom, other activities such as golf or wildlife, several hostels and prices segments†¦) makes customers able to customize their vacations.WDW provides multi-experience. -Communication: the firm must keep using a multi-channel and multi-media strategy to spread its marketing messages including as many new technologies as possible. -Innovation & Ideas generation: WDW must preserve theâ€Å"environnement for supportive conficts† it created through its meetings: Gong Show, Charettes with architects and theme park designers, Movie Development meetings. – Common sense & Discipline: This is the practical part of WDW uniqueness because necessary to test ideas, especially from a fiscal and financial point of view. Indeed ood ideas need time that is the reason why WDW creative process goes against quick actions and audience research. -Creativity: As M. Eisner said â€Å"Together conflict & common sense yield creativity†. We can add that WDW culture of diversity and fun take parts in the creative process: diverse point of views and individualism lead to frictions, conflicts, debates that are essential to get great solutions. -Facilities and Employees: in facts, WDW employees competent, well-trained and friendly. That is a crucially important factor because most of them are directly in contact with customers.No need to justify how essential the sense of contact is in business. Furthermore, all the attractions in theme parks are totally safe; all the facilities (hostels, restaurants included) are clean, linked each other (monorail, boats†¦) and electrically connected.. We notice also that WDW is technologically competent: it is a leader in product development, equipments design and maintenance, industrial engineering†¦for instance WDW design and manage perfectly attractions waiting lines: customers are sensitive about the time they have to use rides. All these aspects are visible for customers Branding Image: all the previous criteria are parts of the branding image; WDW brand is the amount of thousands and thousands small actions (â€Å"pointillist painting†). In particular Mickey and Disney characters, the castle are the symbol that contains all the stories the company created, the dreams and thoughts it suggest to children. Thus, if competitors lower their p rices, WDW should not change its prices and by the same time keep guarding its brand trough all the strategic decisions especially for marketing: WDW messages should be focused on the quality of the product.Question 2: How can WDW utilize customer information better to increase its volume of business? First and foremost, we should have in mind the term â€Å"forecasts† when we deal with customer information topics. Indeed WDW, due to his forecasts department, accumulates data on consumer’s attendance but also consumer’s behavior. All the other departments of the firm (like Labor Management, Maintenance, Finance, Park Theme Design) have access to this precious information which will be used for a set of management decisions to increase volumes and profits.That information can be predicted daily, weekly, monthly or for several years (till five years). In order to understand how customer information is utilized, a look at the forecasting process is necessary; 1- Wh at are the data sources? There are 3 main sources: -The guests in theme parks, hostels, restaurants†¦this is the more direct source. -The employees. For this category we could say that it has nothing to do with consumer information.Actually it has for at least two reasons: first employees can be directly in contact with guests and their recommendations are precious; secondly we could see each employee as a consumer into the firm and improve their working environnement leads to improve final customer satisfaction. – The travel industry professionals because they have their own data bases. 2- How WDW get them? Through surveys (questionnaires, interviews, focus group techniques†¦). All kind of topics could be dealt with but the two most important are customers experiences future Travel Plan. 3- How WDW process these data?Thanks to such models as judgmental, economic, moving-average models, regression analysis, monthly forecasting mode. Each model take into account a ce rtain number of variables like gross domestic product, cross-exchange rates, airline specials†¦ 4- Forecasts This is a major step in the decision- making process. All these consumer information and their analysis by models enable WDW to forecast consumer behavior (attendance in particular). Thus WDW can manage demand taking proper decisions about the capacity planning, the number of required employees, the due quantity of food and beverage†¦Question 3: What weaknesses or limitations do you see in WDW strategy? Ops Strat s WDW strategy is coherente but we can observe some accurate failures especially in operations strategy. Let’s remind the operations process framework and colour in blue the specific â€Å"failing fields†: Product Design Process Design Location/ Layout Cap. planning/Forecasts Work Organization Operations execution Of course other fields like merchandising or Facilities development are concerned. In the following paragraphs we focused on all of those black points. Prices of admissionFirstly, we can put forward the fact that WDW does not compete on prices (especially price of admission). From a positioning point of view it is logical: WDW is a leader in entertainment industry and bet on quality, innovation and uniqueness. But in time of global economical crisis, customers may desire a lower cost product; and there are serious competitors able to propose such offer: Sea World, Universal Studios†¦Of course children are attracted by WDW and can convinced relatives but the final decision remains to adults who get the purchasing power. Hotel development strategyThen we should notice the expanding strategy for WDW hostels: it does not deal with short term demands. Long term demand is not so much reliable when economy is disrupted. Thus Disney occupancy rates above 90% much of the year which is not sufficient anymore. Synergies & organization -Another point is the fact that WDW meet some difficulties to create synergies because of its top management. It is a problem of hierarchy, organization, authority delegation and culture. Actually the main problem could be that it is hard to delegate autonomy, to create empowerment among the group. We should notice that the hierarchy reorganization tends to create duplications (cf: example of a person running movies in Italy reporting to two executives): several hierarchical levels are added. Actually WDW is a hybrid structure; it is in time of mutation or transition.Profits & Losses – WDW experienced losses in home-video earnings because of strategic decisions that lengthen the release cycle for certain animated movie classics. It could be a problem of product development (cf: The product Development Funnel and especially Products Design step) or process engineering. The consumer products department also knew difficulties. Actually it is a matter of merchandising, especially concerning licensed-characters. This problem deals directly with consumer behavior (in-store purchases, on-line purchases†¦). -Concerning the Interactive media division, Disney experienced huge losses (source: Disney Fiscal Year Results). Actually the group invested in self-published video games (video games that are published by their author) and it needs more times to be profitable. -It goes the same for Internet (Go. com, Disney. com, ESPN. com†¦).It is s a crucial business field but investments cost a lot. To conclude we could qualify WDW weaknesses and limitations as mainly cyclical strategic problems . They are not structural even though it could deal with the organization (organization chart) and we can afford to say that those difficulties are temporary. The only structural change that has affected deeply the company concerned consumers attitude. â€Å"Disney still knows how to sweep people off their feet†, better than anyone else but the corporation needs to take into account new habits and expectations.